TLDR
- Rivian (RIVN) shares rose 1% to $15.47 in Friday trading, though volume ran well below average.
- Wall Street holds a consensus Hold rating with an average price target near $17-19, implying upside from current levels.
- Rivian’s software and services revenue hit $515 million last quarter at a 42% gross margin, a bright spot in an otherwise unprofitable business.
- An Uber partnership could bring up to $1.25 billion in investment tied to autonomy milestones, with a 10,000-vehicle robotaxi fleet planned for 2028.
- Rivian appears at the Evercore ADAS, AV & AI Forum on September 29, a date investors are watching for autonomy updates.
Rivian Automotive stock climbed 1% on Friday, trading as high as $15.65 before settling at $15.47. Trading volume came in 44% below the average session level, suggesting the move wasn’t driven by heavy conviction either way.
The stock has spent months bouncing between $15 and $16, with a fifty-day moving average of $15.98. That range-bound trading reflects a split Wall Street view on where Rivian goes next.
Twelve analysts rate the stock a Buy, nine say Hold, and seven say Sell. That works out to a consensus Hold rating and an average price target of $19.00, according to MarketBeat data.
A separate TipRanks tally puts the average target at $17.13, implying nearly 11% upside from current levels. Either way, the message is the same: analysts see room to run, but nobody is fully convinced yet.
Earnings Beat, But Losses Continue
Rivian’s most recent quarterly report, released July 30th, topped expectations. The company posted an adjusted loss of $0.63 per share, better than the $0.66 loss analysts had projected.
Revenue reached $1.66 billion, up 27% year over year and well ahead of the $1.52 billion consensus estimate. Still, Rivian isn’t profitable. Analysts expect a full-year loss of $2.98 per share, and the company projects a full-year adjusted EBITDA loss between $1.8 billion and $2.0 billion.
The numbers paint a familiar picture for Rivian watchers: growing sales, shrinking losses, but still a long way from the black.
Software Could Be the Real Story
Deliveries aren’t the only thing investors are tracking anymore. Rivian’s autonomy software is starting to look like a business of its own.
On September 29, Rivian’s autonomy and AI leaders will speak at the Evercore ADAS, AV & AI Forum. The timing lines up with plans to roll out point-to-point assisted driving later this year.
The R2 platform, which began deliveries on June 9 starting at $57,990, already supports hands-free assisted driving across 3.5 million miles of U.S. and Canadian roads. A cheaper R2 Standard, priced at $44,990, is expected in 2027.
This month, Rivian merged its R1 and R2 lineups onto a single software platform called RivianOS 2. That move should make fleet-wide updates easier and could pave the way for paid features down the line.
The financial case for software is starting to show up in the numbers too. Software and services revenue hit $515 million last quarter, carrying a 42% gross margin and contributing to $179 million in total gross profit.
Then there’s Uber. The ride-hailing company has agreed to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, contingent on Rivian hitting autonomy milestones. The plan calls for an initial fleet of 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis, with room to expand to 40,000. Commercial deployment is targeted for 2028.
Insider selling has continued in recent months. CFO Claire McDonough sold 13,144 shares in August at an average price of $14.50, while insider Michael John Callahan sold 15,000 shares in September at $16.29. Both sales were made under pre-arranged trading plans.
Institutional ownership remains heavy, sitting at 66.25%. Norges Bank and Bank of New York Mellon both built new positions in recent quarters, while Capital International Investors added to its existing stake.
Rivian’s market capitalization currently stands at $22.40 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of -6.00 and a beta of 1.62.
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