TLDR
- Samsung Electronics fell about 1% Tuesday as SK Hynix dropped around 3%, dragging down the KOSPI index.
- Goldman Sachs warns of a “triple-hit” volatility event on Thursday, October 8, combining prelim earnings, ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and a buyback roll-off.
- Goldman estimates Samsung’s Q3 operating profit at 106 trillion won, close to street consensus but a 5% cut from its own prior estimate.
- A stronger Korean won and rising semiconductor ETF outflows are adding pressure on Samsung shares specifically.
- HBM4 shipments are expected to grow nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, keeping underlying chip fundamentals solid despite the volatility.
Samsung Electronics stock slipped around 1% on Tuesday, while SK Hynix dropped roughly 3%, both lagging the broader chip sector as investors braced for a crowded earnings week. The KOSPI index itself fell more than 1% in sympathy.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., SMSD.L
The timing isn’t random. Samsung is set to release preliminary third-quarter earnings later this week, and Goldman Sachs says Thursday, October 8 could be an unusually bumpy day for the stock.
Analyst Heather Oh flagged a rare pileup of four separate events hitting at once. Samsung’s prelim report, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the end of a stock buyback program are all landing on the same day.
That’s a lot of moving parts for one ticker to absorb. Goldman called it a “triple-hit” setup that could push volatility higher specifically for Samsung, more than its chip peers.
Earnings Expectations Take a Slight Haircut
Goldman now estimates Samsung’s third-quarter operating profit at 106 trillion won. That’s close to the street consensus of 105.5 trillion won, but it’s a 5% cut from Goldman’s own earlier forecast of 112 trillion won.
The culprit is currency, not chips. The Korean won has strengthened more than expected, with the dollar-won rate tracking near 1,418 versus Goldman’s prior assumption of 1,460.
A stronger won eats into overseas earnings when they get converted back home. Street estimates have followed the same path, sliding from an August peak of around 114 trillion won for the same reason.
Even with the trim, Goldman isn’t backing away from the bigger picture. The bank says profit north of 100 trillion won is still backed by solid DRAM and NAND demand, with HBM chips leading the pack.
Goldman expects Samsung’s HBM bit shipments to climb close to 50% from the prior quarter, powered by the ramp-up of its HBM4 chips. Regular DRAM growth, by comparison, looks flat, mostly because Samsung is shifting capacity toward HBM instead.
Mechanical Selling Adds to the Pressure
Beyond earnings, there’s a purely mechanical force at play. Seven semiconductor ETFs holding a combined $14 billion in assets are scheduled to rebalance on October 8.
Samsung is expected to see outflows from a weighting cap built into those funds. SK Hynix and chip equipment makers like Isu Petasys, Wonik IPS, and Hanmi Semi are tipped to catch the offsetting inflows instead.
Adding to the squeeze, Samsung’s 15 trillion won buyback program was expected to wrap up this week. That removes a steady source of daily buying support right as selling pressure builds from other directions.
Foreign investors haven’t been shy about selling either. Goldman’s note points to five straight days of foreign outflows from Samsung heading into October 8, totaling roughly $2.6 billion.
Goldman’s own trading desk also reported sell-skewed flows through September, with hedge funds leaning more bearish than long-only investors. That pattern held into Thursday itself, according to the note.
Markets aren’t just watching Samsung in isolation. There’s broader caution around AI-driven chip demand after reports of data center delays in the US in recent months.
Memory rival Micron offered a counterpoint last week, posting strong earnings and forecasting that AI demand will keep memory supplies tight for at least another year. That’s a favorable backdrop for both Samsung and SK Hynix heading into their own reports.
SK Hynix, fresh off a blockbuster ADR offering, is expected to post its Q3 results later in October. Goldman’s parting message for Samsung: watch whether foreign inflows return and whether earnings momentum holds into the next quarter.
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