TLDR
- SpaceX stock fell over 1% in pre-market Thursday as 319 million more stocks unlock for trading
- This follows a larger 911 million share unlock on August 6, which actually saw the stock rise 6%
- SpaceX stock shows almost no correlation with the Magnificent Seven, trading more like a broad market risk proxy
- Analysts remain bullish, with an average price target of $232.35, implying over 66% upside
- By December, around 40% of SpaceX’s total stock could be freely tradable
SpaceX (SPCX) stock slipped over 1% in pre-market trading Thursday, hitting $137.60, as another 319 million stocks become eligible for trading.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This latest unlock gives early investors and employees the option to sell, potentially adding more supply to the market. It comes just two weeks after a larger unlock of around 911 million stocks on August 6.
That earlier unlock did not trigger a wave of selling. Instead, SPCX stock rose more than 6% that day, a reminder that an unlock does not automatically mean investors will rush to exit.
Today’s batch represents about 7% of the stock still under selling restrictions. Investors are watching closely to see if this one plays out differently.
This will not be the last unlock event either. Another 319 million stocks are expected to become eligible in September, with more releases scheduled after that. By December, around 40% of SpaceX’s total stock could be freely tradable.
SpaceX made a strong debut when it listed, closing its first day at $161.11, roughly 19% above its $135 IPO price. It went on to hit a post-IPO high of $225.64 before dropping sharply after its first quarterly earnings report, falling below $105.
How SpaceX Stock Actually Trades
The stock has recovered from those lows and is up about 2% over the past five trading days. But it remains well below its post-IPO peak.
DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe took a closer look at how SPCX actually behaves relative to other stocks. What she found was surprising. SpaceX shows almost no correlation with the Magnificent Seven megacaps, despite being a trillion-dollar company with AI models and data centers.
Its correlation with the Mag Seven sits at just 0.28. For comparison, Apple’s correlation with the S&P 500 is around 0.7. SPCX has even shown negative correlations with Amazon and Meta.
Instead, SpaceX trades more like a broad market risk gauge. When sentiment is good, investors buy it. When nerves creep in, they sell it.
It also trades most closely with other space stocks like Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS).
“SpaceX doesn’t yet trade like a clean proxy for any single investment theme,” Rabe wrote. “Six weeks in and one earnings report into public life, the market still hasn’t decided what SpaceX is.”
What Analysts Are Saying
Despite the recent weakness, Wall Street remains constructive on the stock. Clear Street analyst Brian Dobson kept his Buy rating with a $217 price target, pointing to U.S.-based production and cleared supply chains as competitive advantages.
UBS analyst John Hodulik also held his Buy rating with a $210 target. He cited long-term growth across Starlink and broader technology businesses, including potential upside from Starlink Mobile and the V3 satellite constellation expansion.
Across TipRanks, SPCX carries a Moderate Buy consensus from 24 Buys, six Holds, and two Sells. The average price target stands at $232.35, implying over 66% upside from current levels.
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